With the Cats now eliminated from the SEC Tournament, Kentucky’s postseason fate shifts from the field to the NCAA Committee. UK is officially in ‘wait and see’ mode as conference tournaments across the country shape the field of 64, which will be announced during a selection show on Monday, May 25 at 12 p.m. ET (tentatively) on ESPN2.
Of the 64 available bids, 29 are reserved for automatic berths for conference champions, leaving 35 at-large spots decided by the committee. Here’s what the majority of that at-large breakdown will likely be, and some conferences to keep an eye on:
10 from the SEC: Georgia, Texas, Texas A&M, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Oklahoma are locks (Kentucky would make an 11th at-large).
7 ACC: Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College, Miami, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech and Virginia will be in, with Pittsburgh being the remaining dark horse.
6 Big 12: Kansas, West Virginia, Arizona State, UCF, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, with TCU being a bubble team and Baylor/Kansas State looming.
4 Big Ten: UCLA, Nebraska, USC and Oregon are in. Purdue & Michigan are on the bubble. Potential bid stealers left are Ohio State and Michigan State.
3 Sun Belt: Southern Miss, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana; bubble teams are South Alabama, Texas State and Troy. Long way to go in a tournament that’s been delayed by weather and typically gets weird one way or another.
3 Conference USA: Jacksonville State, Liberty, Missouri State. Tournament field is wide open.
2 American: It seems like UTSA and East Carolina are both going to be in, seven teams still remain in its tournament as of publication.
Remember- an auto bid will be among the teams listed unless it’s ‘stolen’ by one of the 'dark horses.'
Independent Oregon State has a chance to host, depending on how things shake out this weekend, and will nab another at-large spot.
In addition to any of the above teams not listed as a dark horse, here are a two more clubs to pull for the rest of the week:
Have some Mercer (43-13, 26 RPI) baseball with your coffee this morning and tune in to the Southern Conference tournament. The Bears will get an at-large if they bow out early, and will play on Thursday and Friday at 9 a.m., not necessarily an ideal time for a one-seed.
UC Santa Barbara (37-16, 34 RPI) has also been solid and boasts some high-end talent. Cal Poly (33-21, 79 RPI) tied the Gauchos for first place in the Big West regular season. Even though UCSB swept the Mustangs earlier in the year, the latter needs to win the tournament to keep playing, and would steal a bid if that happened.
Simple math suggests there’s not a ton of room on the bubble, but if chalk holds, there will be space for a few of the teams below to jump in, and UK’s numbers look pretty good compared to most:
Kentucky
Overall: 31-21
Conference: 13-18 (13th, SEC)
Quad 1, 2: 7-8, 4-5
RPI: 37
Derek Terry
Kent State
Overall: 39-13
Conference: 24-9 (2nd, MAC)
Quad 1, 2: 3-1, 7-6
RPI: 52
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Miami (OH)
Overall: 38-15
Conference: 25-8 (1st, MAC)
Quad 1, 2: 4-6, 1-3
RPI: 39
The Golden Flashes open MAC tournament play against Toledo on Thursday night. And while they’ve had success against all opponents, including Quad 1 and 2 (combined 10-7 record) foes, the rest of Kent State’s schedule hasn’t been able to support a good RPI. The MAC isn’t typically a two-bid conference, but the Flashes and Miami are heavy favorites to lift some hardware by the weekend’s end, and the Redhawks’ RPI is sitting at 39, just two spots behind UK. Miami also won two of three at Kent in March. Either way, it seems like a crash course for a good watch, but whoever loses may not have enough RPI to grab a bid.
Louisiana
Overall: 36-21
Conference: 16-14 (7th, Sun Belt)
Quad 1, 2 records: 5-8, 10-5
RPI: 36
Texas State
Overall: 35-22
Conference: 16-14 (6th, Sun Belt)
Quad 1, 2: 2-9, 10-4
RPI: 40
The Cajuns have beaten Coastal Carolina (36-20, 27 RPI) three times in four games and are 11-3 since April 28. Those wins over the Chanticleers (all in the past week) have pushed them just ahead of Kentucky in the RPI. It will be very interesting to see how the committee treats the Sun Belt, which D1Baseball projects getting just one additional bid in addition to regional host contenders Southern Miss and Coastal. The Cajuns are among a few teams seemingly vying for that spot.
Another one of those teams is Texas State, who also has a strong resume overall. The Bobcats beat App State on Wednesday for their eighth win in their last nine games, and swept Louisiana (at home) back in March. The beauty of it all? These two go head-to-head on Thursday in what could prove to be a regional play-in game.
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Michigan
Overall: 33-23
Conference: 17-15 (7th, Big Ten)
Quad 1, 2: 4-10, 7-3
RPI: 52
The Wolverines won 20 of 25 from late March through May 10, but lost four in a row before postseason play, including a home sweep at the hands of Ohio State. They righted the ship a bit with a shutout win over Rutgers on Tuesday to begin the Big Ten tourney. The Wolverines lost to Washington last night and will face the Buckeyes yet again tonight. A win in that game would set up an opportunity to lock in their bid against Nebraska or Oregon, who would be waiting on that side of the bracket.
Purdue
Overall: 35-19
Conference: 18-12 (5th, Big Ten)
Quad 1, 2: 2-6, 5-7
RPI: 57
Former UK assistant Greg Goff has had a great year at Purdue, but it was swept at Iowa in the last weekend of the regular season and lost the first game of the Big Ten tourney against Michigan State. They righted the ship with a win over Illinois yesterday, but a tough go at it against Quad 1-2 teams (7-13) hasn’t helped the RPI, and the Boilermakers will probably need to run the table to get in.
UTSA
Overall: 36-19
Conference: 17-10 (1st, American)
Quad 1, 2: 1-2, 8-5
RPI: 53
The Roadrunners began 2026 with a 14-2 record but have stumbled down the stretch, going 3-5 in their last eight games to finish the regular season. Thanks to a series win over East Carolina in March, however, UTSA captured the No. 1 seed in the American tournament, and doesn’t open postseason play until Friday. Both UTSA and ECU are expected to earn a bid according to D1Baseball, which had ECU and UK among the “last four in” when they released their projections on May 18. A poor showing on Friday may hurt UTSA’s at-large hopes, however, as they’ve fallen out of the top 50 in RPI.
TCU
Overall: 33-20
Conference: 17-13 (7th, Big 12)
Quad 1, 2: 6-12, 5-3
RPI: 41
The Horned Frogs have had several ups and downs this spring – a five-game losing streak, a seven-game winning streak, and in May alone, they’ve been swept at Oklahoma State, swept Utah at home, and lost a series at West Virginia to cap the season. Their loss to Kansas State last night dropped their RPI from 41 to a precarious 46, however.
South Alabama
Overall: 33-21
Conference: 17-13 (5th, Sun Belt)
Quad 1, 2: 8-9, 2-0
Troy
Overall: 29-27
Conference: 17-13 (4th, Sun Belt)
Quad 1, 2: 7-9, 2-4
RPI: 43
If the Louisiana-Texas State matchup wasn’t enough, the Sun Belt opens the day on Thursday with a South Alabama-Troy matchup that’s technically even better on paper. Troy has been a bit inconsistent all spring and may have some work to do this week to get in. The opportunity is there, however, and another couple wins may give Louisville alum Skylar Meade’s Trojans another bid out of the Sun Belt.
Southeast Missouri
Overall: 39-16
Conference: 18-9 (2nd, OVC)
Quad 1, 2: 1-1, 6-4
RPI: 38
SEMO beat Lindenwood on Wednesday and finished in second place in the OVC after Sean Lyons’ SIUE Cougars won their first-ever league title this spring. The OVC is very rarely a two-bid league. Will there be an argument for SEMO if the Redhawks can’t run the table?
UAB
Overall: 31-24
Conference: 15-12 (4th, American)
Quad 1, 2: 7-11, 3-6
RPI: 57
End-of-season series losses at Rice (swept) and dropping two of three at home to Charlotte likely spoiled the Blazers’ at-large hopes. But Casey Dunn’s club – picked to finish last in the league – would have a shot to boost its resume against UTSA on Friday, provided they win Thursday's matchup against Memphis.
