Projecting Kentucky's 2023 opening day lineup

Opening day for the 2023 Kentucky baseball team is now nine days away. Today’s newsletter will project the Wildcats’ starting eight in the field, plus the designated hitter, and examine a few players who could still find a role as platoon players. The next newsletter, coming tomorrow, will feature a deep dive into Kentucky’s pitching staff. 

CATCHER

Starter: Devin Burkes

Backups: Chase Stanke, Austin Fawley 

Burkes was a revelation for the Wildcats down the stretch of the 2022 season. The redshirt sophomore began receiving regular playing time in May as he finished the season with 12 starts in 20 games. Burkes batted .429 with a multi-home run game in the SEC Tournament against LSU, which helped land him on the SEC All-Tournament team. It was a relatively small sample size for the season, but Burkes finished the year hitting .378 with a 1.270 OPS and more walks (11) than strikeouts (9). 

He’s the only player in the projected starting lineup that has seen consistent SEC pitching, so Burkes’ bat will need to show up for the Wildcats again this spring. 

FIRST BASE

Starter: Hunter Gilliam

Backups: James McCoy, Chase Stanke

Since Evan White departed for the draft following the 2017 season, Kentucky’s first basemen have mostly been of the bat-first, defense-second variety. That’s not unusual for first basemen, but coaches say Gilliam will be the best defender in that position in the last five seasons. The 6-foot-2, 230-pounder will need to provide with the bat as well. He slashed .281/.395/.579 with 13 home runs and ten doubles in his final season at Longwood. 

SECOND BASE

Starter: Emilien Pitre

Backups: Jase Felker, Ryder Giles, Patrick Herrera 

Pitre is one of the more fascinating prospects on this year’s roster. A growth spurt late in high school coincided with the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, so Pitre hadn’t seen much live action when he enrolled at Kentucky in the fall of 2021. He appeared in 11 games last year, mainly as a pinch runner, but maybe had the best summer of any Kentucky player while playing in the Cal Ripken Collegiate Baseball League. Pitre had a 15-game hitting streak and led the league with a .405 batting average with seven doubles, 20 RBI, 21 walks and six steals.

The question now is how quickly he can adapt to pitching at the Division I level. The early returns from scrimmages in January and early February against UK’s pitchers have been impressive. One source believes he’s been Kentucky’s best position player to this point. At a scrimmage I attended on Jan. 28, Pitre hit an opposite-field homer off Zack Lee. That’s impressive since Lee might be trending as a weekend arm for the Cats.

SHORTSTOP 

Starter: Grant Smith

Backups: Emilien Pitre, Ryder Giles

Smith will have big shoes to fill defensively as he replaces Ryan Ritter. Smith comes to Kentucky from Incarnate Word. He started all 116 games he played at Incarnate Word and hit .297 overall with 21 doubles, two triples and 16 home runs. He was named to the Southland All-Conference First Team. 

How good can Smith be at the plate in the SEC? That’s the most important question for several Wildcats entering the season. He’ll likely start the season slotted lower in the lineup, but his defense should keep him in the lineup. 

THIRD BASE

Starter: Isaiah Byars

Backups: Reuben Church, Austin Fawley

Byars, who started his career at Alabama but transferred to the University of North Florida, became eligible recently and is projected to play third base. The 6-foot-1, 190-pounder was an All-Atlantic Sun First Team selection in 2022 after hitting .300 with 12 doubles, two triples, five home runs and 28 RBI. He also stole a team-high 16 bases. Byars played shortstop at North Florida last season but made 18 starts at third base in 2021.

LEFT FIELD

Starter: Ryan Waldschmidt

Backups: Jase Felker, Nolan McCarthy, Lukas Schramm 

My favorite of Kentucky’s newcomers, Waldschmidt quickly acclimated himself to college baseball. He homered in his first game at Ole Miss and went on to have an impressive freshman campaign at Charleston Southern. He started 48 of the 52 games he appeared in and hit .310 with a team-best 1.066 OPS. 

How about this for production in your first college baseball season; Of all the players in the Big South, Waldschmidt ranked in the top 10 in the conference in slugging percentage (.574), on-base percentage (.492), OPS (1.066), walks (35) and stolen bases (17). 

I’m not sure if Waldschmidt’s power numbers will reflect that of a prototypical corner outfielder – he had 12 extra-base hits at Charleston Southern, including five home runs – but his value is getting on base. He walked more than he struck out in 2022, a stat I love seeing in players, especially those as young as Waldschmidt. I look for Waldschmidt as a table setter for the Wildcats at the top of the lineup. 

CENTER FIELD

Starters: Jackson Gray

Backup: Nolan McCarthy 

Jackson Gray is a reclamation project for Kentucky’s coaching staff as his two seasons at Western Kentucky University were polar opposites. In 2021, Gray was voted to the 2021 All-Conference C-USA Second Team after an impressive season. His .363 batting average was the second-best in the conference and he collected 65 hits, 13 doubles, eight home runs and drew 29 walks. 

In 2022, however, Gray saw a dramatic dropoff in production. He finished the year hitting .203/.312/.399 with 53 strikeouts and just 19 walks in 48 games. 

Gray’s splits are so extreme that it’s tough to predict his production at Kentucky. If he’s closer to the 2021 version, the Wildcats could have an everyday starting outfielder who provides power from the left side of the plate. If he’s more like the 2022 version, that could allow McCarthy to become the starter. It’s possible UK plays matchups early in the season to give both players a chance to stake their claim to the position.

RIGHT FIELD

Starter: James McCoy

Backup: Kendal Ewell, Lukas Schramm 

No player saw his stock rise more in the fall than McCoy. At 6-4, 205 pounds, McCoy looks the part of a future big leaguer. He’s a switch hitter with power from both sides. Scouts liked what they saw in the fall as McCoy was named the No. 83 college draft prospect by D1baseball.com. 

“I’ll start with the eye test,” Kentucky head coach Nick Mingione said. “You see a chiseled, 6’4 physical and athletic human being. Then you start looking at the tools and breaking them down. His ability to switch hit and show power from both sides of the plate. When you start putting all of those factors into it, you realize there’s somebody special here. The biggest thing I was most pleased was his overall competitive nature. When he’s at his best, he’s competing and competing really hard. That’s the best version of James and that came out this fall.” 

McCoy is as big of a breakout candidate as Kentucky has had in recent years, but there are question marks until he sees the field. Can he provide substantial offensive output in his first year as a starter? Defensively, McCoy spent most of the last summer in the outfield and practiced at first base last season at Kentucky. He was playing third base as recently as a week and a half ago, but it sounds like he’ll move to a corner outfield position.

Depending on who’s hitting well, the outfield could see several combinations. Kendal Ewell, a transfer from Eastern Kentucky University, has one of the better resumes of any of Kentucky’s transfers this past season. He comes to UK as a career .333 hitter with 21 doubles, 21 home runs and 85 RBI. Ewell hit .361 at EKU in 2022.

Ewell’s combination of raw power and speed can rival anyone else on the roster, but strikeouts were a concern at EKU. He struck out 79 times compared to 40 walks as a junior. Can he show enough discipline to get fastballs in the zone and do damage? If so, I’d expect Ewell to be an everyday player, whether it be in the outfield or as a DH. 

DESIGNATED HITTER

Starter: Chase Stanke

Backup: Kendal Ewell, James McCoy

Stanke was a late addition to Kentucky’s class in July as he was initially slated to transfer to Houston. The Sugar Grove, Illinois, native played at Minnesota for four seasons before moving to Lexington. In 2022, Stanke finished with 13 homers, which was the most for any Minnesota player since 2009. The power numbers were a surprise since he’d only homered twice in 228 at-bats before his senior season. 

His stats reflect a player who prioritized extra-base hits over everything else, though I’m not sure that was an intentional philosophical change. He saw a dip in his average (.272 in 2021 compared to .228 in 2022) and his strikeouts increased (19 in 2021 compared to 43 in 2022) but almost every other statistical category improved. 

Here’s a look at some of Stanke’s stats in his Minnesota career: 

As the graphic shows, Stanke rarely had any extra-base hits entering his senior season. But in 2022 — the first year that he played in over 50 games — he had 15 doubles, 13 homers, drew more walks and slugged .513. I’d say the chances are good that Stanke is in the lineup most days as long as his bat produces. He’ll be an asset against right-handed pitching, plus he’ll need to catch at times to give Burkes a break behind the plate. 

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