Kentucky still projected in NCAA Tournament as selection day nears

Publications around the country expect the Wildcats to reach their third straight NCAA Tournament.

Kentucky still projected in NCAA Tournament as selection day nears
Photo by Ethan Rand of UK Athletics.

The field of 64 for the 2025 NCAA baseball tournament will be announced in two days. The selection show — scheduled to air at noon ET on Monday, May 26 — will be when Kentucky finds out if it’s going to the NCAA Tournament for a third consecutive year. The Wildcats made school history last year by earning their highest overall seed (No. 2 overall) but it was also the first time they had gone to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments. It’s guaranteed if Kentucky does make the field that it will travel in the NCAA regional for the first time under Nick Mingione. Kentucky was the host school in the three other tournaments under Mingione. It would be the first away regional for the program since 2014 when it was in Louisville’s regional.

Kentucky swept Oklahoma in a series from May 9 — 11, bringing its SEC record to 13-14 and putting it in a great spot to make the tournament. But walk-off homers on consecutive nights against Vanderbilt and another blown lead in the finale on Saturday meant the Wildcats would not get to 14 SEC regular season wins, a marker that likely would’ve made them a lock for the tournament.

After a 5-1 loss to Oklahoma in the opening round of the SEC Tournament, Kentucky will enter Monday with a 29-24 overall record and a 13-17 conference record. The RPI, as of Saturday morning, is 36th nationally. The Wildcats are 8-19 against RPI top 25 teams and 4-1 against teams ranked 26-50. There are some good qualities overall, but this is traditionally not a resume that is considered a lock.

Still, prognosticators around the country view the Wildcats as a safe selection. Of the four publications listed below, none had the Wildcats among the last four teams in the field.

D1baseball.com: three-seed

I got Joe Healy’s opinion earlier this week about the Wildcats’ resume. He felt that Kentucky would be a lock if it knocked off Oklahoma, but that it could turn into a nervous week if that didn’t happen.

“They would have an aggregate 13-18 record against SEC competition plus an RPI probably closer to 40 than 30,” Healy said. “If the bubble remains soft, I think it's more likely than not that they get in with that resume, but if there are a handful of stolen bids, it could be enough to see UK left on the cutting room floor.”

As of Saturday morning, Healy and the guys at D1baseball.com still see the Wildcats in the field. They are listed as a three-seed in the Conway Regional with Coastal Carolina, NC State and USC Upstate.

Kentucky has some history in the NCAA Tournament with the Wolfpack, both turning out to be massive moments for the Wildcats. Mitch Daly’s walk-off homer in the 10th inning last year gave Kentucky its first College World Series win in program history. The Wildcats also knocked off NC State twice in the 2017 Lexington Regional to clinch a super regional birth for the first time in school history.

Baseball America: three-seed

Jacob Rudner of Baseball America felt good about Kentucky’s resume regardless of what happened in Hoover. The publication has Kentucky traveling west, pairing it with two-seed Arizona in the Eugene Regional. If this is the case, Kentucky fans might need to be prepared to stay up late for some baseball.

On3.com: three-seed

Here’s another West Coast projection for Kentucky. On3.com has Kentucky in the Corvallis Regional, a fun storyline if the Wildcats were to meet up with Oregon State again this year. Kentucky swept Oregon State 2-0 at Kentucky Proud Park in last year’s super regional.

But both teams would have to get through their first game to make that a reality. The Wildcats are slotted to play UC Irvine in this scenario, and Oregon State would face San Diego.

The Tennesseean: three-seed

Aria Gerson of The Tennesseean sees the Wildcats staying closer to home. Kentucky would travel to Chapel Hill as the three-seed in North Carolina’s regional. In this scenario, the Wildcats would play Northeastern, a team that has won an astounding 26 consecutive games entering Saturday’s CAA championship game. North Carolina would face Rider in its opening matchup.

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