Kentucky baseball NCAA Tournament projections (5/1)
The Wildcats are holding strong in postseason projections.
The final month of college baseball’s regular season is upon us. With just 10 games remaining in Kentucky’s 2025 regular season, the Wildcats are holding firm in postseason projections. Kentucky (25-17, 10-11 SEC) did what it needed to do last week by taking care of business with a 17-5 midweek win in seven innings over No. 19 Louisville and took two out of three from a struggling South Carolina team.
A chance to notch another RPI Quad 1 win was there for the taking on Tuesday against WKU in Bowling Green, but the Hilltoppers erased a 3-0 Kentucky lead in the fifth inning and held on for a 6-4 win after a lengthy lightning delay. Kentucky wraps up this week with a three-game series against Mississippi State, which fired head coach Chris Lemonis on Monday.
Here’s a look at some bracketology for this week:
D1baseball.com: two-seed
Kentucky held steady as a two-seed in the D1baseball.com projections, but there was a change in location. Last week, Kentucky came in as the two-seed in the Chapel Hill Regional with North Carolina, UCONN and High Point as the other teams in the bracket. This week, D1 projects Kentucky in the Morgantown Regional with West Virginia as the one-seed, Virginia Tech as the three-seed, and George Mason as the four-seed.
The Wildcats are 3-2 all-time against the Hokies, but the two teams have not met since 2010. Kentucky opened the 2010 season with a 15-6 win over Virginia Tech.
Baseball America: two-seed
There was a shift in location for the Wildcats in the Baseball America’s projections as well. This projection has Kentucky, still listed as a two-seed, going to Clemson, South Carolina, to be in the Clemson Regional. Connecticut would be the opponent with Holy Cross as the four-seed in the regional. Kentucky has never faced UCONN or Holy Cross in baseball and has not played Clemson since 1997, so there would be some intriguing matchups if the bracket played out this way.
On3.com: two-seed
Jonathan Wagner of On3.com had Kentucky as a three-seed in his April 21 update, but the 3-1 week was enough to move Kentucky up a seed line. A popular pairing in these mocks, Wagner has the Wildcats going to Chapel Hill to be in the UNC regional. UCONN is the three-seed and Bryant is the four-seed.
Kentucky is 0-4 all-time against UNC in baseball. Fun fact: the first series of the Nick Mingione era came at North Carolina. The Wildcats were swept to begin the season but finished the year with their best postseason finish in program history. Kentucky was also scheduled to play UNC to begin the 2021 season, but it was canceled because of COVID-19 protocols.
Kentucky’s only matchup with Bryant was a 7-4 loss in 2016.
*11.7 College Baseball predictions were included last week, but I did not see an updated projection for this week as of the time this was written.