Mailbag: What is Kentucky's ceiling in 2026?

This mailbag edition discusses Kentucky's floor/ceiling in 2026, the ongoing catcher battle and a starting lineup projection at this point in time.

Mailbag: What is Kentucky's ceiling in 2026?
Photo by Ethan Rand/UK Athletics

It's been a couple of months since our last mailbag at Bat Cats Central. In fact, the Wildcats' roster was not completed when the July 17 mailbag was published; St. Bonaventure transfer Jayce Tharnish committed to the Wildcats four days later.

But fall practice is going by quickly. Several intrasquads and the first scrimmage against outside competition have been completed, leaving just 17 days until the Wildcats wrap up the fall with a scrimmage against Morehead State. First pitch is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. at Kentucky Proud Park on Oct. 26.

It's a good time for a mailbag, so let's dig in.

Based on your observations, what is the ceiling and floor of this team? – @TheJSpence

This is a great question to start with, and one that I've been thinking about a lot recently. Absent any major injuries to the pitching staff or top position players, I doubt I'll be changing my mind too much from now until the start of the season. I thought this was a good team on paper when the roster-building portion of summer concluded, and my views remain the same after seeing them in action this fall.

Beginning with the floor, I think this should be a surefire NCAA Tournament selection. This team is not without some question marks – some of which we will discuss later in this story – but the balance of high-end talent, returning experience, depth on the weekend staff and throughout the lineup gives this team one of the higher floors of the Nick Mingione era. I'd put Kentucky in the ballpark of 15 to 17 SEC wins as the most likely outcome, which would comfortably place it in the tournament on the lower end and make it a likely host at the upper end of that total.

As for the ceiling, how about another trip to Omaha? I don't know that it's the most likely outcome, but in terms of a best-case scenario, I see no reason the Wildcats shouldn't be grouped with several teams that could make it to the College World Series if things broke their way. Like any team, Kentucky needs to avoid serious injuries and have its best players (Tyler Bell, Ryan Schwartz, Ben Cleaver, etc.) perform at a high level throughout the season. It's tough to make it all the way to Omaha, but I do think this team has the upside to get there.

Thoughts on the catcher battle who do you see with the upper hand heading into the spring? – Patrick
Kind of interesting that Duffey did not get any run at catcher Sunday. You think he is behind Tyson and Jenkins, or just wanting to see what those guys can do? – Jeff

We'll group these two questions together. In terms of personnel, Alex Duffey not catching was the biggest surprise in my eyes. He had a tough day when I saw him during the Sept. 28 scrimmage, but you have to take individual days with a grain of salt sometimes in the fall. Someone might look like the best player on the team one day and one of the worst players a week later. That's baseball.

Tagger Tyson earned the start in the first game and freshman Owen Jenkins caught the second game. To answer Jeff's question, it seemed like the lineup in the first game was based on how guys had performed to that point in the fall, so maybe it should be taken as a sign that Tyson has been the best to this point. Perhaps a decision was made to give Tyson the first seven innings against West Virginia and then use Duffey for seven innings in the final scrimmage against Morehead State. We'll just have to see how it plays out.

But here's my big picture question when it comes to catcher: if it's relatively close, at what point would the staff just choose Jenkins? Nate Harris breaking into the weekend rotation last year could be a comparable situation. Experienced players had the first opportunity, but eventually, it made more sense to go with the younger player with the most long-term upside. I could see the same situation playing out at catcher in 2026.

Fall baseball coverage

Nick Mingione breaks down UK’s scrimmage against West Virginia
Nick Mingione spoke with Bat Cats Central following the Wildcats’ 26-10 win over 14 innings against West Virginia at Prasco Park on Oct. 5.
Players who stood out during Kentucky baseball’s scrimmage against West Virginia
Kentucky defeated West Virginia 26-10 over 14 innings at Prasco Park in Mason, Ohio, on Sunday. Here are four position players and three pitchers who caught our eye.
Observations: UK rallies in game one, controls game two against West Virginia at Prasco Park
Kentucky defeated West Virginia 26-10 over 14 innings on Sunday at Prasco Park. Here are the takeaways from the day’s action.
Who are the Top 5-6 best options for starting pitchers weekend & weekday? How do you think it plays out? – BBN_WeAreUK
Can you take a stab at who you think may be our High leverage RP? – Trey

Who are the weekend starters come conference play in your opinion? – Carter

This is the pitching section of the mailbag.

For the weekend rotation, senior Jaxon Jelkin and junior Ben Cleaver are locks, while Nate Harris is a heavy favorite to once again be in the rotation. WKU transfer Jack Bennett was the Friday night starter for the Hilltoppers a season ago and could eventually find his way into the rotation – Kentucky has rarely had the same three weekend starters throughout a season, though this trio might be more talented than ones in the past – but for now, Harris has to be the pick. I'm excited to see what he looks like after a full year in the program.

Pitching coach Dan Roszel watches as Ben Cleaver, Nate Harris throw a bullpen session in front of MLB scouts. Photo by Ethan Rand/UK Athletics

Bennett, if he's in the bullpen, could be used to piggyback off of any starts that only last a few innings. Other players in the mix for extended innings on the weekend could be Grand Canyon transfer Connor Mattison, Oliver Boone (injured in 2025), sophomore redshirt Tommy Skelding, sophomore lefthander Leighton Harris, sophomore righthander Tristan Hunter and senior Nile Adcock.

I'm not sure there will be a lights-out, shutdown reliever on this staff, but New Orleans transfer Ira Austin is a likely backend bullpen arm. Another candidate, if healthy, is Chase Alderman. He's missed the past two seasons, one at EKU after Tommy John surgery and one with Kentucky after a torn ACL, but he was clocked in the upper 90s with his fastball earlier in his career. It's hard to know what to expect after two lost seasons, but there's plenty of potential if he can put it together.

As for a weekday starter, could the staff lean toward a veteran like Jackson Soucie? Since there are so few lefties on the team, Soucie might be needed in the bullpen on the weekends, but he could be valuable in a midweek role. He started five midweek games for South Carolina in 2025. Sophomores Burkley Bounds and Bryson Treichel were starting weekend games at their previous schools, so they could also be natural fits in this role.

Who’s your starting lineup if you had to guess right now? – Willam Bergolla enthusiast

I'll stick with the first lineup we just saw against West Virginia. Prior to the scrimmage, I would've projected Duffey at catcher and Tharnish in center field instead of Scott Campbell, but Tharnish was in left field while Campbell patrolled center. Otherwise, I think most other positions are spoken for. There's no doubt that Tyler Bell and Luke Lawrence are starting up the middle again, and Tharnish, Campbell and Schwartz seem like the best combination in the outfield in terms of offense and defense. Indiana transfer Tyler Cerny and junior Ethan Hindle will continue battling it out at third, while Hudson Brown is the frontrunner at first base. Carson Hansen would be the pick for DH.

  • C Tagger Tyson
  • 1B Hudson Brown
  • 2B Luke Lawrence
  • SS Tyler Bell
  • 3B Tyler Cerny
  • LF Jayce Tharnish
  • CF Scott Campbell
  • RF Ryan Schwartz
  • DH Carson Hansen
When will we find out the pre-conference schedule? Hoping they play somewhere warm !!!! – @UKLisaO

It shouldn't be much longer. The full schedule was released on Nov. 1 last year, so we should have an official announcement within a few weeks. Look for Kentucky to play a few road series in February, but neither will be played in particularly warm places for that time of year.

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